Ukraine. War. Human trafficking and slave prostitution.

Reading: All About Willpower

What I read.                                                                                                                 

The “Willpower Instinct” by Kelly McGonigal, Ph. D, is a non-fiction book. Based on solid scientific data and experiments, it reveals in simple language the intricate workings of human psychology, human brain chemistry, its inner communication and interaction, and all of these manifesting in our decision making and behavior. For many who are interested in self-improvement and strive to accomplish something important in their lives, it might read like a thriller.

The main subject of this work is human willpower; why we have it; why sometimes we cannot employ it when we most need it; why it fails and why it succeeds. Located in our brain, it has all characteristics of a muscle: it can be trained and increased in strength like muscles do; we can lose it if we don’t use it; it gets tired when overused, and even can be damaged, as muscles sometimes would. The book also explains what chemical processes in the brain prompt or accompany our behavior in various situations.

The reader will find numerous examples of how people, using information presented by the author in her lectures at universities, coped with addictions to caffeine, alcohol, illicit drugs, unhealthy food, gambling, computer games, social media, and many others.

Our brains work the best at rationalizing bad decisions and satisfy our immediate urge for some sort of gratification. Sometimes the cause is a social, not purely biological reason that triggers impulsive decisions.

As the author states, “But all too often, we use our fancy brains not to make us the most strategic decision, but to give ourselves permission to act more irrationally. It can also rationalize bad decisions and promise we’ll be better tomorrow.”

A lot of attention in the book is devoted to how we discount the future and its effect on our behaviors. We all believe that somehow the future will be better than the present. We think that in the future we will have more time, have stronger willpower, and better circumstances for achieving our goals. But immediate gratification has much better value for us, than the future reward. “The longer you have to wait for a reward, the less it is worth to you,” the author claims.

To that effect, the author mentioned an interesting test, conducted in the 1960s. The four-year-old kids offered marshmallows with some condition: either to take one immediately, or wait 15 minutes and take two marshmallows.

‘How long a four-year-old waited in the marshmallow test predicted that child’s academic and social success ten years later. The kinds who waited the longest were more popular, had higher GPA’s, and were better able to handle stress.” “Being able to wait fifteen minutes for two marshmallows was the perfect measure of something more important: how well could a child handle temporary discomfort to accomplish a long-term goal?”

A wealth of information, interesting, simple to understand, entertaining, and useful. 

John Grisham’s Wonderful Sense of humour

Distinct features of Grisham’s novels are intrigues, struggle for justice and tough moral dilemmas for his characters. This kind of plot usually does not leave space for humour. Rather, it could be even detrimental to the main idea of it, distracting the reader’s attention and diluting suspense with unnecessary components. There is one of Grisham’s short stories though, that accommodates both suspense and humour: Quiet Heaven.

The very title is sarcastic, as it is the name of a nursing home where old people spend their last years, usually in deteriorating mental and physical health. The story is narrated by a sophisticated crook, who discovered the way to profit from other people’s misery. His previous job was at Heaven’s Gate, a similar final station for a human life. So, both in Heaven’s Gate and in Quiet Heaven, his experience was almost the same.

In the past, a few great authors wrote stories about the life in institutions where people, whose only expectation was death, found the last refuge. The best two novellas, which come to my mind, are Sanatorium by Somerset Maugham, and Heaven Has No Favourites by Eric Maria Remarque. There are certainly some others, but it is a matter of personal preference to consider only these worth mentioning.

Under the surface of an intriguing plot, both stories reveal the sad and merciless truth about human destiny. John Grisham however, had overcome the natural impulse for funeral mood and grim philosophy, which such places inflict on us. Instead, he adopted a sarcastic and humorous tone, which still did not obscure the serious thoughts of the author, but at the same time made the story fun to read.

Gilbert Griffin, a professional crook, applies for a job in Quiet Heaven, and is hired right away, as it is hard to find someone willing to accept a minimum wage for the most dirty and ungrateful work at night shifts. He does not mind, as his earnings will eventually amount to tens of thousands, or even hundred thousands dollars. It comes therefore as no surprise that his narration is coloured with cynicism, controversy and humour. After all, he deals with the nursing home staff, some of which don’t care about their patients. Actually, they are the targets in his schema. He will document their negligence, sloppy job and often cruelty, and take his finding to the court unless the management is willing to settle for a huge reward. Another trick is to rip the patients off with the help of a sleazy lawyer, if such opportunity exists.

His first target in Quiet Heaven was Lyle, an eighty-four years old man, whose obsession with women in his younger years progressed into mental disorder. Here is what one of the stuff members, a black lady in the kitchen, tells to Gilbert about him.

“Lawd have mercy, son. That’s the dirtiest ol’ man in the world. Can’t keep his hands off any woman, no matter how old. He’s grabbed nurses, patients, attendants, ladies from the churches who come in to sing Christmas songs. They used to lock ‘im up during visitation, else he’d chasin’ the girls from the families. Came in here one time, lookin’ around. I picked up a butcher’s knife and waved it at him. Aint’t had no problem since.”

            “But he’s eighty-four years old.”

            “He’s slowed a little. Diabetes. Cut off a foot. But he’s still got both his hands, and he’ll grab any woman. Not me, mind you, but the nurses stay away from him.”

Gilbert rents an apartment in a house belonging to a former madam, whose name is Ruby. As he soon discovers, she does not abandon her business. On the first Friday night of his stay, the life in the apartment above him is raging on, depriving him from sleep.

“An hour later, the clicking is back, and the bed is once again hopping across the floor. The hero this time must be either bigger or rougher because the noise was louder. She, whoever she is, is more vocal than before, and for a long and impressive while I listen with great curiosity and a growing eroticism as these two abandon all inhibitions and go at it regardless of who might be listening. They practically shout when it was over, and I’m tempted to applaud. They grow still. So do I. Sleep returns.”

Some philosophical ponderings of the crook are amusing. “In retiring homes, birthdays are a big deal, and for obvious reasons. You’d better celebrate ‘em while you can.” And then, after a short description of festivity, he remarks: “Each birthday might be the last, but I guess that’s true for all of us. Truer for some, though.”

And here is an excerpt about the Lyle’s birthday party:

“…At one point Wilma Dell gets too close to Lyle, who, off his saltpeter, makes an awkward and obvious grab for her ample ass. He gets a handful. She yelps in horror, and almost everyone laughs as though it’s just part of the celebration, but it’s obvious to me that Queen Wilma is not amused. …. Wilma disappears and is not seen for the rest of the day. I doubt that she’s had that much fun for years.”

It is a pleasure to read how Gilbert, devoid of any moral principles, discusses morality issues with madam Rudy. The topic of their conversation is a star prostitute, who works for Rudy.

“A nice girl,” I say, mindlessly.

            “She started working for me when she dropped out of high school. Terrible family. Couple of bad marriages after that. Never had a break. I just wish I could keep her busier. It’s so hard these days. Women are so loose they don’t charge for it anymore.”

            Miss Ruby, a career and unrepentant madam, is bemoaning the fact that modern women are too loose. I think about it for a second, then take a sip and let it pass.”

Wonderful! A brothel owner laments about low morality of our times! Indeed, who else will defend it?

 

Part-Time Job Offer

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• Ensuring all correspondence is approved by the author.

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• A passion for literature and an understanding of the publishing industry.
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A spreadsheet containing web addresses of literary agencies. If you discover additional suitable candidates for submission, you can incorporate them. We request approaching only well-established and reputable agencies that do not impose any costs on the author.

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History on the Making

Free Russian Legion entered Belgorod Oblast from Ukraine and engaged in combat with local military forces. Currently, it needs to be stronger to stay there long and establish its administration. However, it is evident that someone has a grand design for them, and what is happening now is just the beginning. What could it be? Here are some considerations.

1. Testing the response of the Russian Federation: If a group such as the Russian Legion were to engage in combat with local military forces in Belgorod and the Russian government did not respond effectively, it could suggest weakness or lack of preparedness in the response system. This could potentially embolden the Legion to take further action and establish its own administration if it perceives a power vacuum.
2. Testing local population receptiveness to independence: if the Russian Legion were to operate in Belgorod and gauge the local population’s response to the issue of independence from the Russian Federation, it could help them understand whether there is support for such a cause. The information could influence their future actions and strategies.
3. Shifting Russian troops from the Ukrainian front: if the Russian government perceives the situation in Belgorod as more critical than the Ukrainian front, it is possible that they could divert troops from Ukraine to deal with the situation in Belgorod. However, the decision to do so would depend on the Russian government’s strategic priorities and perceived threats.

The intrusion of the Legion into Belgorod oblast opened a Pandora’s Box of the local social ills and degradation of morality. According to reputable journalists and broadcasters (you can find plenty on YouTube and International Press), soldiers of the local Russian army, whose duty was to defend the population, instead rushed to rob houses, particularly those abandoned by owners who left in search of safe refuge. There were cases of rapes, beatings, and even murders. Strangely enough, the racial majority in these units were Buryats and Tuvins, who hated Russians for the atrocities, mistreatment, and arrogance that took place in the not-so-distant past in their territory. As a result, Belgorod’s civil life is in ruins. Local administration could not help people in their effort to leave the area of military engagement. Russian units, reluctant to risk their lives in direct combat, used artillery to remotely hit the Legion combatants, indiscriminately destroying the town’s houses and civilian infrastructure. All of these pave the ground for acceptance of the Russian Legion administration as a better alternative to the existing ones. It would be fascinating to watch how this, presently a tiny military unit, would grow into a powerful military and political force with totally unpredictable consequences for all. 

Anna’s Paintings at a Super Yacht Solandge.

Anna Razumovskaya is a talented artist whose paintings have captured the attention of art lovers all around the world. Her work is currently on display at the Solange yacht, one of the most luxurious and prestigious superyachts for charter.

Razumovskaya’s paintings are known for their stunning beauty and emotional depth. She has a unique style that blends classical and contemporary elements, creating a timeless quality that is both elegant and modern. Her use of bold colors and sweeping brushstrokes creates a sense of movement and energy that is truly captivating.

One of the most striking aspects of Razumovskaya’s paintings is the way she captures the human form. Her figures are graceful and expressive, conveying a range of emotions and moods. Whether it is a solitary dancer lost in thought or a couple locked in a passionate embrace, each painting tells a story and invites the viewer to become a part of it.

Razumovskaya’s art has been featured in galleries and exhibitions around the world, and it is no surprise that her work has found a home on the Solange yacht. Her paintings are the perfect complement to the yacht’s opulent surroundings and luxurious atmosphere.

While owning an original Anna Razumovskaya painting may be out of reach for many art lovers, there are other ways to enjoy her work. The richly illustrated book, “Anna Razumovskaya: The Artist of Bliss,” is an excellent resource for those who want to learn more about her life and art.

The book features stunning images of her paintings, as well as insights into her creative process and personal journey as an artist. It offers a unique glimpse into the mind of one of the most talented painters of our time and is a must-have for any art lover.

And the best part is, the book is available on Amazon at an affordable price, making it accessible to a wide range of people. Whether you’re a seasoned art collector or simply appreciate the beauty of fine art, “Anna Razumovskaya: The Artist of Bliss” is sure to captivate and inspire.

The Winter of Our Troubles

There are a few events that I’d like to mention in my blog. The first one is a mention of my novel, “Justice of Brenda, The Wolverine,” in the Publishers Weekly Review. Here is their email: “This is a notification from PW’s GalleyTracker system to let you know that the review for Justice of Brenda the Wolverine has been published.” http://www.publishersweekly.com/9781926720548

That kind of luck does not happen often, but for many – it never does.

Here is the review:  Toronto police detective Melissa Bonar lands an unusual homicide case in this enthralling mystery from Markman (Contra-Odessa). Edward Green was found in his apartment, half-naked, with his wrists slit, an apparent suicide. But there are several odd elements, including evidence that Green was sodomized before his death. He was found by his girlfriend before expiring from blood loss, but the only word he uttered that she understood was Wolverine. That clue leads Bonar to Brenda Rorke, an ex-con who was given the nickname of Wolverine in prison, for her fearlessness in confronting bigger female inmates bent on beating her up. After learning that Green once went by another name, the detective theorizes that he was assaulted in revenge for an unpunished crime that Rorke, who’s currently shacked up in a trailer park with a biker gang, may have been involved in. Markman toggles between past and present, leaving readers guessing on how everything will play out, and succeeds in making Rorke a character, readers will sympathize with. Those interested in a nuanced look at what could lead someone to lash out violently will be satisfied.

The book is available on:

 Amazon https://www.amazon.ca/Justice-Brenda-Wolverine-Alex-Markman/dp/1926720547/

Barns and Noble: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/justice-of-brenda-the-wolverine-alex-markman/1136050656?ean=9781926720548

It is also worth mentioning that the war in Ukraine stirred the ever-present problem of our époque – human trafficking, slavery, and prostitution. In my novel “Payback for Revenge,” this issue was presented in its horrible details, as it happened during the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. The problem now is as acute as then; just everyone looks the other way… In Payback for Revenge, you’ll find out why the misery of humanity spreads its metastases the fastest during the “Winter of Our Troubles.”

 On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Payback-Revenge-Alex-Markman-ebook/dp/B005F0Q52M/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1VRC5Q6LF7N80&keywords=payback+for+revenge+alex+markman&qid=1675452301&sprefix=payback+for+revenge+alex+markman%2Cspecialty-aps%2C107&sr=8-1

Barns & Noble: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/payback-for-revenge-alex-markman/1102395602?ean=2940011517785

Can Black Swan Be a Rare Instance of Pleasant Surprise?

With the onslaught of the pandemic, many fortune tellers (guru analysts) predicted a deep recession, if not even depression. The logic was on their side: lockdowns reduce workforce and movement of goods and people; reduced workforce reduces consumption; reduced demand would paralyze some industries such as travel, entertainment, restaurants, and those associated with them. Is it what happened in 2021?

Instead, we see growing demands and shortages associated with them. There are poultry shortages, high fertilizers prices, congested ports, shortage of containers, increased energy consumption and price; shortage of truck drivers; labor shortages in manufacturing and service sectors; shortages of numerous medications and their components; the whole list would take pages to mention.

By the way, many medications and their components are produced in China. It is odd to trust China with medical supplies; the country is the source of many epidemics and exotic diseases and is notorious for its disregard for the environmental and health condition of its population. Even more troublesome is China’s food, which appears in our supermarkets with the label “Organic”. China grows organic fish and vegetables? Gimme a break.     

Still, we do not know the long-term consequences of lockdowns and other disruptions of the international economy, but we shall expect many surprises in the economy and politics and changes in geopolitical reality.

The main precursor of the coming troubles is energy prices. They affect all aspects of the international economy and, combined with labor shortages, pandemic restrictions, and transportation disruptions may result in social disturbances around the globe.

Curious enough, any present forecast is doom and gloom. I have not come across any prediction which suggests a pleasant surprise. Can Black Swan be a rare instance of something exceedingly good and pleasant or be only an unpredictable disastrous event?

Farrakhan and His Praise of Hitler

While surfing the Internet, I had come across the quote of Louise Farrakhan, the leader of “The Nation of Islam”, hailing Hitler as “a very great man.” 

At first, a thought crossed my mind that Farrakhan had never said that, or was quoted out of the context of what he had said and meant. I began digging in and found out what exactly he had said and how this statement, in his view, must be interpreted. Here is the full text:

“Here, the Jews don’t like Farrakhan, so they called him Hitler. Well, that’s a good name. He was a very great man. He wasn’t great for me as a Black man, but he was a great German and rose Germany up from the ashes of her defeat by the united force of all of Europe and America after the First World War.”

No doubt that Hitler possessed tremendous destructive power, but on the other hand, he was at the helm when Germany rose from ruins of depression to one of the strongest industrial and military machines of the century. Winston Churchill mentioned in his memoir that Hitler had a devilish genius. But that does not make Hitler a “very great man” for anyone, be it a German, a Black, or a Jew. In my opinion, a great man is the one who does good for people, not the one who inflicts death and suffering for the whole of humanity. Hitler was a devil, a very efficient one, but not a great man. 

I’m sure that Farrakhan knows but preferred to disregard the origin of Nazi ideology. The racial theory was popular among distinguished thinkers and philosophers of the 18th and 19th centuries, including such a tower of philosophy as Schopenhauer. However, its practical application began in the African German colonies in the 19th century and continued until the 20th century. The treatment of the indigenous black population was appalling. It was a true genocide, with the mass extermination of the country’s population. There were first concentration camps, later called “death camps”, set up by Nazis during the Third Reich time. By all intents and purposes, blacks – if we disregard semantics – were not considered as humans.

Under Hitler’s leadership, the racial theory was elevated to absurdity, based on which the Nazi party developed plans for extermination of Jews, Poles, Ukrainians, Russians, and other “inferior” races and nations. So far as I know, Hitler had no particular plans regarding Blacks. One reason for that was that there were almost no blacks in Europe. But in Africa, there is no doubt that the policy of genocide and forced labour was not to be changed from what it was in the 19th century.

Here, I’d like – for the fun of it – to fantasize that Farrakhan was living at the time of Hitler and wanted to be introduced to this “great man.” No matter how Farrakhan would have praised Hitler, Hitler would have never had agreed to meet him, more so to offer his hand for a handshake. No chance. The reason is simple: in the Nazi ideology, the black race was at the bottom of racial hierarchy and hardly considered a human race. So much for a “great man.” 

Here is another quote from Farrakhan: “Now I’m not proud of Hitler’s evil toward Jewish people, but that’s a matter of record.” Is it so? 

Farrakhan claims that he is not an anti-Semite: he is not against Jews, but only against “bad” Jews, in his terminology “Satanic Jews.” So, there are “bad” Jews and “good” Jews. But who would have the right to decide who is a “bad” Jew, and who is not? What if someone from the white race, the likes of Farrakhan, would come up with the statement that there are “bad” blacks and there are “good” ones. I could imagine the outcry of indignation from all walks of life, Farrakhan being the first one to condemn it. 

I’m sure that all would agree that there are good and bad people in any race or nation. But it does not mean that the race could be labeled as a good or a bad one if someone there is a good or a bad one. Implications are far-reaching. This is not because it is politically incorrect: it is against all scientific findings, against the most advanced societies’ constitutions, and, I dare say, against common sense. 

Farrakhan also mentions the “innate black superiority over whites.” The problem I see in this statement is that it is racist. Let’s assume – for the sake of argument – that all races adopt this stand: whites would declare themselves as a superior race, Asian people would consider their superiority (many of them do), and so on. We will end up with a deeply divided, aggressive society, which would be plunged into bloodbath and anarchy. Much more attractive to me is the latest scientific conclusion that all races and nations, save for minor biological differences, are equal and belong to the same human race. 

By the way, if Farrakhan were not black, I wouldn’t care to write this blog, no matter how popular or influential he or any other anti-Semite was. After all, one anti-Semite more, one less, does not make any difference in millenniums of Jewish history and even in contemporary race relations matters. Not much, at least, other than some of my regrets that these ideas serve someone’s goals. What surprises me is that Farrakhan disregards the fact that Jewish people in America invariably sided with black people, understood their suffering, and were supportive of their plight for equality. There are known facts when Jewish families adopted black kids when racism in America was in full bloom. For instance, Louise Armstrong, the famous black American entertainer, was adopted by a Jewish family and wore David’s star till the end of his life. Regretfully, not all blacks reciprocate and, under the influence of such people as Farrakhan, adopt similar views. 

Social Media Controversial Issues

I came across an interesting article, “Social Media is Old-Fashioned and Radically Disturbing” by George Friedman. It is like an extensive comment about the Justice Department’s intention to bring an antitrust suit against Google, targeting Google power in on-line advertising. Friedman analyses similarities and differences in the business model between old media, such as TV, newspapers, radio, and the new ones, notably Google, Facebook, and Twitter. Before, as it is now, the viewer did not pay for the media content. But in the old way, the content provider invested in creating the content had an identity and, therefore, as an owner, had responsibility for the content.
The new media does not own the content, does not create it, and has no responsibility for it. The content is created free by the media participants, who have no responsibility for it as well. Moreover, the content creator does not have an identity unless he/she voluntarily discloses it. One can create as many accounts as one wants, all under a false identity. The media company analyses the habits of participants and sell the data to advertisers.
According to Friedman’s point of view, the most controversial issue is freedom of speech vs. accountability for the content and absence of responsibility. Indeed, there are many hatred and radical points of view that flood the modern media, and it is virtually impossible to control or restrict it.

WHY RUSSIA INTERFERES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS?

Indeed, why? Is there a compelling reason to send combat units, no matter how small, in the region saturated with hatred, armed conflicts, political and social instability, religious animosity and unreasonable political aspirations?
Russia has no serious political adversary in this region (yet), no vital political and economic interests in it, neither it has compelling ideological stimulus for expansion into this area, as had been the case at the time of the Soviet Union.

Russia knows too well how dangerous to meddle in the affairs of the Muslim world. The war in Afghanistan was good proof that military victory in this region does not mean the success of the enterprise. Even the mighty Soviet Union had to admit a total failure of its military campaign. Now Russia is in a messy geopolitical game where each player’s move is unpredictable and often defies logic. Alliances there may change overnight. Big international players, America, and European countries have vital political and business interests in this region. Aggravating relations with them is detrimental to the Russian economy and political stability. Is Russia in a good shape to meet these challenges?
A brief overview of the contemporary (March 2020) situation may bring some clarity in understanding of each player’s motives and serve as a foundation for further analysis. It might be not valid tomorrow, as any drastic change in temporary alliances, occasional military clash, or any other “Black Swan” event bordering absurdity might drastically change the reality and affect both the foundation and logic of analytical work.

Turkey and Russia.

At this time, Turkey and Russia have established reasonably good diplomatic and business relations. None of them wants military confrontation: they understand that it could spin out of control. Turkey is a member of  NATO. A serious military conflict with Russia could possibly draw in European countries and America. Understandably, it is in the best interest of all players to avoid a war and resolve whatever disagreements come along to mutual satisfaction.
However, beneath the surface of Russia-Turkey diplomatic (and so far successful) maneuvers lie a long history of distrust, animosity and profound conflict of interests. Turkey effectively controls the south part of the Black Sea and exits from it to the Mediterranean Sea. Thus, it stands on the way of Russian geopolitical ambitions. Russian military fleet would not be able to participate in conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East without Turkey’s consent.
Crimea is another sore spot in Turkey-Russia relations. After the Russian annexation of the Crimea Peninsula Turkey was strengthening its military, commercial and political cooperation with Ukraine. Russia considers these activities as subversive and hostile, a direct threat to its geopolitical goals.
Russia does and will do whatever it takes not to let Ukraine develop a strong economy and decent living standard for its population. If Ukraine ever achieves prosperity, it would be a bad example for people of the Russian Federation. It would demonstrate the superiority of law and order and true democracy over the Russian autocratic system. To prevent this, Russia initiates and supports local but exhausting military conflicts in Ukraine as well as forces that are in favour of strengthening ties with Russia.

Another sore spot for Russia is Turkey’s support of Crimea tartars. In 1944, the Soviets deported almost all Crimea tartars from the Crimea peninsula to remote places in southeast Russia. Since then, Crimea tartars struggle to get back to their homeland. Being predominantly Muslim, they try to draw the attention of the Muslim world to their struggle for the right to return.
If given a choice between Russia and Ukraine, almost all Crimea tartars are in favor of being a part of Ukraine. However, their ultimate goal is total independence, which they once had in their history. For Moscow, with its imperial ambitions, strategic military considerations for the Crimea Peninsula and spiritual attachment of the majority of Russians to Crimea, this is an anathema.
However, in our opinion, the problem with Crimea Tartars would not evolve into a serious confrontation between Russia and the Muslim world, including Turkey. Almost all Middle East countries have problems with minorities. Therefore, it is not an issue that they wish to address or criticize each other.

In Libya, still torn in a civil war, Turkey and Russia have irreconcilable stands. Turkey supports government forces: it sends to Libya military supplies and even military personnel. Russia, on the other hand, supports rebels. However, in spite of their support to warring parties and indirect involvement in a military confrontation, so far, the two sides show restraint and prudence: they settle matters with diplomacy, open and secret, and keep good relations in all other spheres of mutual interest.

Turkey and Syria.

Both countries are predominantly Sunni. The Turkish population is 99% Muslim, of which 81% follows Sunni Islam. Syria population is 87% Muslim, the majority of which is also Sunni or some variation of it. Both countries are secular and, to some extent, tolerant of other religions. The animosity between the two countries, therefore, has nothing to do with ideology or religion. The culprit is a history of territorial claims and water distribution. It is unlikely that these issues will ever be resolved.
Turkey is against the contemporary regime of Syrian dictator Assad. Syrian civil war caused an influx of millions of refugees to Turkey (and Western Europe), which became a heavy financial, administrative and political burden on Turkey.
Another problem is the Syrian and Turkish Kurds. Some of them fight for independence; their cause could attract Kurds living in Turkey (from 12 to 20 million by different estimates), in Iraq and Iran. Syria supports the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which demands separation from Turkey. This is the cause of serious Turkey’s hostility toward Syria. Recent Turkey’s occupation of territory north of Syria is in part the result of Syrian’s support of separatist Kurdish groups.

Iran and Turkey.
Iran is mostly Shiites, but maintains friendly relations with Sunni Syria and supports the regime of Assad. Iran uses Syria as a base to harm Israel and to broaden its influence throughout the Middle East either via proxy, as is the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon or by setting up their own military bases, as it is in Syria. In spite of Turkey and Iran having conflicting interests in Syria and supposedly hostile branches of Islam, their relations so far are pragmatic and friendly. They cooperate in trade, tourism, and other spheres of business and culture. Although recently Turkey stopped buying oil from Iran to comply with the US sanctions, otherwise nothing changed in their attitude towards each other. However, each of them tries to spread its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond in the Muslim world. In Syria, their military presence could be the cause of a broader conflict.

Syria, Russia, and Israel.
Israel and Syria are long-time enemies with a history of hatred and wars. As there are territorial and water distribution issues, these two countries have no chance to settle matters at any time. At present, Israel regularly bombs Iranian military objects stationed in Syria and raids Syria territory to fight terrorists. Often Israel’s fighter jets fly close to the airspace controlled by Russians. Monitoring Russian and Israel activity in Syria requires coordination and cooperation, military and diplomatic; so far, both sides managed to do so and avoid accidents.
Israel and Russia have good business, trade, and diplomatic relations. Israel has about two million Russian immigrants who maintain connections with their families, friends and business partners in Russia. There are regular flights between the two countries, and their citizens are not required a visitor’s visa. There is secret diplomacy between the two, and likely some secret military cooperation and information exchange.

As can be seen from this brief overview, so far both players demonstrate a surprising restraint and goodwill in coordinating their military and diplomatic activity in seemingly irresolvable situations. There was no such precedent in the history of the Middle East, neither, considering such degree of complexity, in any other part of the globe. How long this unstable balance would last? And what Russia would gain from its involvement in such a tangle of interests and possible military escalation?

At present, Russia has two military bases in Syria: the airbase, located south-east of the city of Latakia in Hmeimima, and the naval facility located on the northern edge of the seaport of Tartus. No other country in the Middle East allows Russia to set up its military presence. Syria let Russia in out of necessity: Russia is the only significant power that supports the Assad regime both diplomatically and militarily. Obviously, Syria needs Russia.
On the other hand, the spread of Russian influence over the Middle East without Syria would become problematic. Without a military presence in the Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East, Russia would lose the status of superpower and its ability to counter the US policy.

For Russia, Syria is a good place to test their arms at work on the real battlefield. This, in turn, demonstrates to potential buyers of Russian military material how good Russian products are. Russia has a large, powerful military industry. Official statistics grossly underestimate its size, calculating it in US dollars. This distorts the picture: raw materials, labour, and maintenance in Russia cost a fraction of what it is for the US if compared with similar products and services.
Russia is the second (after US) world’s seller of military equipment. The use of their arms in Syria is a good demonstration of its quality, positively affecting its sales. By demonstrating its military power, Russia sends a strong intimidating message to all real or potential adversaries.
The military bases in Syria is an inexpensive Russian policy to show off the status of world power. Countries opposing the US influence may look at the Russian presence in the Middle East as a counterbalance to America.
For Russia, all of these come with significant risks. Hostility between Syria and Turkey can easily transform into serious military clashes. Should this happen, Russia and Iran would inevitably be involved: none of them can afford to lose Syria. They simply have no choice but to take part in the conflicts.
Turkey has even higher stakes in this game, and so far, it has shown no fear of Russia.

An important component of Russian strategy is the anticipated participation in  development of the Syrian economy after the end of the civil war. Restoration of the country’s infrastructure is a huge undertaking, and Russia hopes to be involved in most of it. Strengthening of Syria’s military and creating new branches of economy, such as manufacturing and high tech, is also on the cards, and Russia will be (or it hopes to be) a major player. There will be huge projects, lucrative contracts, and a lot of economic and political benefits both for Russia and for Syria. We do not discuss here how this development – if materialized – would affect Syria’s neighbours. For sure it would bring about a host of problems and conflicts with Egypt, Turkey, Israel, Jordan, and perhaps some others. But this topic is beyond our discussion. Suffice it to say that peace in Syria, however temporary, is a must for the Russian strategy in the Middle East. If diplomacy fails to achieve this goal, winning the war would be the next option. And so it is for other interested parties.

Did Russia weigh pro and con of its global strategy? What if it gets involved in a war in the Mediterranean? What if a war starts against Russia at its western border? What if a war starts with China, Japan, or America? At this time all these scenarios seem highly unlikely, almost impossible. But history is a succession of improbable events, absurd motivating logic and wrong perceptions. Actually, we do not have to look too far back: WWI and WWII were started on the bases of mistrust, imperial fantasies of superpowers, miscalculations, and hostile (and, in retrospective rather stupid) ideologies. It is well concluded by George Friedman: “But national strategy must take into account implausible but catastrophic scenarios because common sense can evaporate rapidly.” (George Friedman, New US Strategy and Technology).

Particularly so it is in the Middle East, where common sense is a rarity. So, the question is, if it is the right time for Russia to take such risk? The war in the Middle East might not occur in isolation. There are other players looking for an opportunity to score accounts with Russia: China and Japan. There is NATO, which theoretically must side with Turkey, whether they want it or not. There is a factor of Russian weak economy and its unstable political regime (in spite of seemingly strong Putin’s hand and population support) that might tip the scale of a shaky geopolitical balance of power.
I think that Russian policy entails significant risk. The country is not ready for a large-scale confrontation with the whole world. Russia has no friends. There is no country that would side with Russia in case of a large-scale conflict. On the other hand, there are many who would side with Russia’s enemies. It is a risky game with existential dangers and hopes to rip benefits if it is won. But, as Warren Buffet said, “Hope is a very bad strategy”. The failure in this game could lead Russia to the confrontation with the whole world. Is Russia ready for it?

 

Non-fiction works by Alex Markman

Energy and the Future of Humanity  https://www.amazon.ca/Energy-Future-Humanity-Alex-Markman/dp/1530990793/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=alex+markman&qid=1583533577&sr=8-3

Putin, the Russian Elite, and the Future of Russia https://www.amazon.ca/Putin-Russian-Elite-Future-Russia-ebook/dp/B00KPHRLT6/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=alex+markman+putin&qid=1583533721&sr=8-1